|
Split
|
IP
|
QS Ratio
|
Strikeouts
|
ERA
|
WHIP
|
HR/9
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
K/BB
|
|
Comerica
|
29.2
|
3/4
|
18
|
3.03
|
1.18
|
0.91
|
5.46
|
1.51
|
3.60
|
|
Road
|
572.1
|
52/92
|
311
|
4.34
|
1.42
|
0.91
|
4.89
|
2.58
|
1.89
|
|
Totals
|
602.0
|
55/96
|
329
|
4.28
|
1.41
|
0.91
|
4.92
|
2.52
|
1.94
|
In 13 seasons as a starting pitcher, Rogers has posted a sub-4.00 ERA only four times, so don’t make the mistake of thinking last year’s 3.46 is the norm for him. It’s obviously not. But that doesn’t mean he isn’t worth fantasy consideration.
Rogers is in a good situation with the Tigers. While Comerica Park is not the extreme pitcher’s park some have labeled it to be, it most certainly does favor left-handed pitchers, and that should give Rogers a legitimate opportunity to keep his ERA below his career number of 4.21.
Run support could be unpredictable. The Tigers enter the season with a lineup still laden with right-handed bats and free-swinging hitters. That kind of one-dimensional offense leads to inconsistency.
Quality starts
Last year should not be held up as a typical season for Rogers. After posting quality starts exactly half the time in 2003-04 combined, Rogers recorded a very impressive 22/30 ratio last season. He’s certainly capable of doing it again, but a more realistic expectation would be 16-20, assuming he gets 33-35 starts.
As stated above, the Tigers have a woefully inconsistent lineup, which could lead to wasted quality starts, as well as outings when starting pitchers can get wins even if they get lit up. Rogers is more likely than younger pitchers to steal wins this way because he’s more likely to gut out five innings on a bad day than younger pitchers are.
Strikeouts
If he strikes out 100 batters, that would be a good season for him. Rogers is most valuable in sabermetric and traditional leagues, where strikeouts are not counted.
ERA
Thirty innings isn’t close to a large enough sample size to matter, so don’t read too much into his 3.03 ERA at Comerica Park over the past three seasons. Still, because he is left-handed, he is a good bet to be successful there, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him post an ERA lower than 4.00 at home this season. If you spot start pitchers, keep this in mind.
Ratios
His 1.41 WHIP over the past three years is a killer — especially in mixed-universe leagues. Rogers is successful because he keeps the ball in the park — as shown by his 0.91 HR/9 ratio in recent seasons — and he keeps his walks totals down. But he’s always been hittable, and any pitcher who frequently puts the ball into play is bound to suffer a high WHIP with Detroit’s suspect defense behind him.
Final Thoughts
Rogers is what the Tigers need. He’s durable and he’s generally consistent. They believe they have a potent enough offense that Rogers gives them a chance to win every time he’s out there, even if he’s allowing three or four runs per start.
But a hittable, 41-year-old pitcher is someone for fantasy owners in mixed-universe leagues to stay away from. He’ll kill your ERA and ratios, and if your league counts strikeouts he won’t help you there, either.
Consider him for spot start duty, if you believe in that approach. In AL leagues, he still won’t do your ratios any favors, but he shouldn’t kill them, as long as you have better starters and enough quality relievers to cushion the blow.
